The 2024 Arc de Triomphe: A Field of Mystery and Potential
The Arc de Triomphe, one of the most prestigious horse races in the world, is set to unfold in Paris, and this year’s renewal is shaping up to be a fascinating spectacle. The fact of the matter is that the bar has rarely, if ever, been so low in an Arc, with the highest-rated horse sitting at 120, a stark contrast to the usual requirement of around 130 to secure victory. While this year’s contenders may not boast the historical pedigree of past champions, they bring with them an air of mystery and the potential for a star to emerge from the pack.
Stall 1 – ZARAKEM
Zarakem has had a meteoric rise, breaking his maiden in April 2023 and quickly becoming a favorite for a Group One race by April 2024. However, his recent performances in the Prix d’Ispahan and the Juddmonte International left much to be desired. Despite this, he did manage a commendable second place behind Auguste Rodin in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, albeit under a favorable pace. Zarakem will be looking to capitalize on any missteps from his rivals, hoping for a fast-paced race that could see him picking up the pieces in the final stretch.
2 – FANTASTIC MOON
Fantastic Moon enters the Arc as the sixth-favorite, yet he has proven to be a formidable competitor, recently defeating Dubai Honour in a Group One at Baden-Baden. This year’s Arc is expected to be a stamina test, which could work to his advantage. While on paper he may not seem strong enough, history has shown that German-trained horses can surprise, as exemplified by Torquator Tasso’s unexpected victory in a previous Arc.
3 – BLUESTOCKING
Bluestocking represents the female contingent, and with nine of the last 16 Arc winners being fillies, she carries a legacy of potential. While she may not have the immediate star power of previous champions like Enable or Treve, her versatility and competitive spirit could see her excel in this seemingly ordinary Arc. Bluestocking has consistently performed well this season, finishing behind only the top three turf horses in the Longines rankings. Unlike many of her competitors, she has proven herself in the field, making her a strong contender in this year’s race.
4 – AVENTURE
With rain forecast for Paris, Aventure’s chances could improve significantly if the ground turns soft. She showcased her talent in muddy conditions with a wide-margin victory in the Prix de Royaument, which propelled her to favor for the French Oaks. Although she finished fourth in that race on firmer ground, her performance in the Prix Vermeille confirmed her place among the elite. Tracking data from that race suggests she has the speed to compete, but she will need the conditions to suit her style.
5 – SOSIE
Sosie, trained by the legendary Andre Fabre, follows a classic path to the Arc, reminiscent of past champions. However, questions linger about whether his progressive profile is built on solid foundations. With an official rating of 119, he appears light compared to his competitors, and doubts about the depth of the French three-year-olds could hinder his chances. While he has shown promise, the Arc typically favors established dominance over developing talent.
6 – SURVIE
Survie’s trajectory has been more about building towards this moment than peaking too early. After a strong second-place finish in the Prix de Diane, she has earned her spot in the Arc, but her chances of making a significant impact may be limited. She has shown flashes of brilliance but will need to elevate her performance to contend for a podium finish.
7 – DELIUS
Delius has been a consistent performer, mirroring Sosie’s path but with a slightly different trajectory. His maturity and motivation could be key factors in the Arc, especially given Jean Claude-Rouget’s impressive record in recent years. If the race unfolds in a strongly-run manner, Delius could shine brighter than before, making him a dark horse in this competitive field.
8 – LOOK DE VEGA
Look de Vega’s recent defeat in the Prix Niel raises questions about his readiness for the Arc. However, history shows that many champions have rebounded from disappointing trials. His previous performances indicate he possesses the physical attributes and racing style suited for the Arc. The challenge lies in trusting his ability to stay the distance, given his sire’s struggles in the same race.
9 – AL RIFFA
Al Riffa stands out as a strong contender, having proven himself against top competition. His recent performances suggest he is in peak form, and his ability to handle the 12-furlong distance on soft ground makes him a compelling choice. Despite some concerns regarding the quality of his previous opponents, his pedigree and recent form position him as a serious threat in the Arc.
10 – LOS ANGELES
Los Angeles represents a new approach for Aidan O’Brien, who has historically targeted the Arc with a more casual attitude. This year, however, Los Angeles has been explicitly prepared for the race, showcasing impressive performances in his trials. His ability to finish strongly in the Irish Champion Stakes suggests he has the potential to surprise, especially given his breeding and the strategic planning behind his campaign.
11 – SHIN EMPEROR
Shin Emperor embodies the Japanese ambition to conquer the Arc, following in the footsteps of his illustrious predecessor, Sottsass. His performances indicate he has the talent to compete at this level, but questions remain about his readiness and willingness to deliver in the high-pressure environment of the Arc. His pedigree and recent form suggest he could be a formidable contender if he can overcome any hesitations.
12 – SEVENNA’S KNIGHT
Sevenna’s Knight has shown promise in staying events but has struggled in higher-class races. His unbeaten record at lower levels contrasts sharply with his heavy defeat in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, raising concerns about his ability to compete in this elite field. While he has potential, the step up in class may prove too challenging.
13 – HAYA ZARK
Haya Zark is set to retire after this race, and while he may not be a frontrunner, he has shown improvement since last year. The softer ground could benefit him, and he may surprise those who underestimate his capabilities in this final outing.
14 – CONTINUOUS
Continuous has had a lackluster four-year-old campaign, struggling to regain the form that once made him a contender. Despite this, his past performances and the genius of his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, suggest he could still find his stride in the Arc. The question remains whether he can recapture his former glory.
15 – SUNWAY
Sunway has been a reliable performer but has yet to break through as a leading contender. His consistent form has kept him in the conversation, but he may lack the necessary edge to compete at the highest level in the Arc.
16 – MQSE DE SEVIGNE
Mqse De Sevigne has a knack for winning close races, but her stamina for the 12-furlong distance remains untested. With a pedigree that suggests potential for longer distances, she could surprise if she can tap into her hidden depths.
Jamie’s Verdict
In a field lacking a standout older horse, the 2024 Arc de Triomphe will likely be decided by which three-year-old can elevate their performance the most. Sosie and Look de Vega are strong contenders, but the emerging talent of Los Angeles, coupled with Aidan O’Brien’s meticulous preparation, positions him as a horse to watch. His blend of brute force and developing talent could make him the perfect fit for this year’s Arc, setting the stage for an exhilarating race in Paris.