NFL Week 5 Picks: Underdogs and Favorites to Watch

As we dive into Week 5 of the NFL season, the excitement is palpable. With teams still jockeying for position and some surprising performances already shaping the narrative, this week promises to deliver thrilling matchups. Underdogs have been performing well this season, boasting a 53.2% success rate against the spread (33-29-3). With that in mind, let’s explore three key matchups and my picks against the spread for this week.

Browns vs. Commanders: A Clash of Styles

Odds Overview

NFL ATS Picks #1: Browns +3.5 (vs. Commanders)

The Cleveland Browns head into their matchup against the Washington Commanders as 3.5-point underdogs. The Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, have been one of the hottest teams in the league, showcasing an explosive offense against the Bengals and Cardinals in recent weeks. However, they face a formidable challenge in the Browns’ defense, which is allowing under 300 yards per game.

Cleveland’s defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, is known for crafting game plans that stifle opposing offenses, and this week will be no different. While the Browns’ offense has struggled, this matchup presents a prime opportunity for Deshaun Watson to regain form. The Commanders’ defense has been porous, allowing over 25 points per game and ranking poorly in both pass and run defense metrics.

Given the Browns’ superior defensive capabilities and the potential for an overreaction to the Commanders’ early success, I believe this is a prime buy-low opportunity for Cleveland. With the underdog trend continuing this season, I’m backing the Browns to cover the spread.

Raiders vs. Broncos: Defensive Showdown

Odds Overview

NFL ATS Picks #2: Broncos -3 (vs. Raiders)

The Denver Broncos are set to face the Las Vegas Raiders, and the odds have the Broncos as 3-point favorites. Denver’s defense has been nothing short of elite this season, allowing under 10 points per game over their last three outings. With standout cornerback Pat Surtain locking down opposing receivers, the Raiders will be without their star wideout, Davante Adams, which significantly hampers their offensive capabilities.

The low over/under of 35.5 points indicates that scoring will be at a premium. The Raiders’ defense has shown some resilience, but they struggle against the run, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. This plays directly into the Broncos’ game plan, which emphasizes a strong ground attack.

With the Broncos looking to control the clock and play mistake-free football, I expect them to win by at least a field goal. Therefore, I’m confident in backing the Broncos to cover the spread.

Cowboys vs. Steelers: Sunday Night Showdown

Odds Overview

NFL ATS Picks #3: Steelers -2.5 (vs. Cowboys)

In a highly anticipated Sunday Night Football matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers are coming off their first loss of the season, but they are poised to bounce back against a Cowboys team that has not looked as dominant as in previous years. The absence of star linebacker Micah Parsons will be a significant blow to Dallas’s defensive unit.

While the Steelers’ offense has been inconsistent, quarterback Justin Fields has shown promise, and I expect him to find success against a vulnerable Cowboys defense. Pittsburgh’s defense remains one of the league’s top units, and I believe they will be able to contain the Cowboys’ offense effectively.

With the Steelers favored by just 2.5 points at home, I see great value in backing them to cover the spread. The home crowd will be electric, and I anticipate a strong performance from Pittsburgh.

As we gear up for another exciting week of NFL action, these matchups present intriguing opportunities for bettors. With underdogs performing well this season, it’s essential to analyze each game carefully. Whether you’re backing the Browns, Broncos, or Steelers, make sure to stay informed and enjoy the games!