Locked In: My Best ATS Picks for NFL Week 4
As we dive into NFL Week 4, I find myself reflecting on the first three weeks of the season. With a record of 3-6 in my best picks against the spread (ATS), it’s clear that I’m due for a turnaround. The underdog trend has been hard to ignore, with teams defying the odds and covering spreads in impressive fashion. After the New York Giants covered as 5.5-point underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, underdogs of 5.5 points or more now boast a remarkable 15-2 record against the spread this season. Even more striking, underdogs of 7 points or more are a perfect 4-0 straight up. This week, I’m focusing on a 7-point underdog that I believe has a solid chance to cover.
Let’s break down my top three picks for NFL Week 4.
Saints vs. Falcons Odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
New Orleans Saints | +2.5 (+110) | +115 | Over 42.5 (−105) |
Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 (−110) | -135 | Under 42.5 (−115) |
NFL ATS Picks #1: Falcons -2.5 (vs. Saints)
The Atlanta Falcons are set as 2.5-point home favorites against their divisional rivals, the New Orleans Saints. The line opened at Falcons -1.5 but has since moved to -2.5, reflecting the betting public’s confidence in Atlanta.
The Saints struggled last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, managing only 12 points after a strong start to the season. While the game was close, the Eagles outperformed them in nearly every aspect. Quarterback Derek Carr has not fared well in Atlanta, holding a 0-2 record both straight up and against the spread in his previous outings there. His road performance has been lackluster, with a dismal 23-35-2 ATS record since 2017.
On the flip side, the Falcons’ defense has been impressive, ranking eighth in the league in passing yards allowed and limiting opponents to under 21 points per game. With a talented offense featuring playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, the Falcons are poised to capitalize on the Saints’ struggles. I believe Atlanta will win this matchup by at least a field goal.
Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-110)
Steelers vs. Colts Odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | Over 40.5 (+100) |
Indianapolis Colts | +1.5 (−110) | +105 | Under 40.5 (−120) |
NFL ATS Picks #2: Steelers -1.5 (vs. Colts)
In an intriguing matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers are slight road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. Surprisingly, the Steelers are one of the few undefeated teams left, boasting a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread. I’m confident they will continue this trend on the road.
With a close spread and a low over/under, this game has the potential to be a defensive battle, which plays into the Steelers’ strengths. Since the start of last season, Pittsburgh has excelled in one-score games, holding an impressive 11-2 record. Their defense has been stellar, allowing under 9 points per game, while the Colts have struggled offensively. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has shown flashes of brilliance but has been inconsistent, completing only 43.9% of his passes through three weeks.
Mike Tomlin’s track record against rookie quarterbacks is noteworthy, and while Richardson isn’t a rookie, he is still relatively inexperienced with just eight career starts. The Steelers’ defense should dominate this matchup, leading to a victory.
Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | -7 (-120) | -380 | Over 39.5 (−115) |
Los Angeles Chargers | +7 (+100) | +300 | Under 39.5 (−105) |
NFL ATS Picks #3: Chargers +7 (vs. Chiefs)
The Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 4 with a perfect 3-0 record, but each game has been a nail-biter. They haven’t displayed the same dominance as in previous seasons, which makes this matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers particularly interesting.
Patrick Mahomes has had success against the Chargers, holding an 8-2 record straight up, but he’s only 4-5-1 against the spread in those games. Historically, home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the season have a solid track record, covering 59% of the time over the last two decades. This season, they are 2-0 ATS.
Under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have shown promise, and I expect this game to be competitive. With a low total of 39.5, getting 7 points is valuable, especially since both teams may lean on their running games. While I’m not ready to predict an outright win for the Chargers, I believe they have the talent and coaching to keep this game within a touchdown.
Pick: Chargers +7 (+100)
As we head into Week 4, these picks reflect my analysis of the current trends and team performances. With underdogs thriving and key matchups on the horizon, it’s an exciting time for NFL betting. Let’s see how these selections pan out!