Assessing Damian Lillard’s Fantasy Value for 2024-25
Damian Lillard, the veteran guard who once dominated Fantasy basketball rankings, faced a challenging transition during his first season with the Milwaukee Bucks. After an impressive scoring average of 32.2 points per game in the 2022-23 season, Lillard’s production dipped significantly to just 24.3 points per game in 2023-24. This decline has left Fantasy owners grappling with how to evaluate him heading into the 2024-25 drafts.
Lillard’s adjustment to playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the league’s premier talents who averaged over 30 points and 11 rebounds last season, is a crucial factor in this equation. While Antetokounmpo is expected to be a cornerstone of many Fantasy lineups, Lillard’s performance will be pivotal in determining his value in the upcoming season. Owners will need to weigh Lillard’s past excellence against his recent struggles and the impact of sharing the court with a superstar.
The Importance of Sleepers and Breakouts in Fantasy Basketball
Finding the right sleepers and breakouts is essential for building a competitive Fantasy basketball roster. Last season, Derrick White of the Boston Celtics emerged as a top-30 Fantasy player in his eighth NBA season. However, this success raises questions about his valuation for the 2024-25 season, as he may be overvalued and could potentially be a bust.
Before making any selections, Fantasy managers should consult updated rankings and cheat sheets, such as those provided by SportsLine, which utilizes a proven computer model to simulate each season 10,000 times. This model is backed by experts who have successfully projected player performances across major Fantasy platforms, ensuring that owners have the most accurate and timely information at their disposal.
Learning from Past Predictions
SportsLine’s model has a track record of accurately identifying both busts and breakout players. For instance, last season, it flagged Josh Giddey of the Oklahoma City Thunder as a potential bust, predicting he would not meet his sixth-round average draft position (ADP). Giddey’s minutes were significantly reduced as the Thunder’s roster improved, leading to declines in his scoring, rebounding, and assists. Ultimately, he was traded to the Chicago Bulls, and those who heeded the model’s advice were spared the disappointment.
Conversely, the model successfully identified DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in the 2021-22 season, where he averaged a career-high 27.9 points per game. It also predicted breakout seasons for Paolo Banchero and Victor Wembanyama, both of whom went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors. Following the model’s insights can be a game-changer for Fantasy managers aiming for a deep postseason run.
Top Sleepers for 2024 Fantasy Basketball
One of the standout sleepers for the upcoming season is Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies. Despite being a two-time All-Star, Morant’s recent suspensions and injuries have caused him to fall off the radar. He has only played in 17 of a possible 102 games since March 2023. However, in the limited action he saw last season, he still averaged an impressive 25.1 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.6 rebounds over nine games.
With Morant fully recovered from shoulder surgery and expressing a positive mental state, he could be poised for a significant comeback. The model ranks him as a top-three Fantasy point guard, even placing him ahead of established stars like Steph Curry.
Breakout Candidates to Watch
Among the breakout candidates for the 2024 season is Zacharie Risacher, the Atlanta Hawks’ No. 1 overall pick. Known for his elite 3-and-D skill set, Risacher shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc while playing professionally in France last season. He is expected to receive immediate playing time alongside Trae Young, which could enhance his scoring opportunities and overall Fantasy value.
Risacher’s ability to play off the ball and contribute defensively makes him an intriguing option, and the model has identified him as a top breakout pick, ranking him ahead of other forwards like PJ Washington and Jonathan Kuminga.
Busts to Avoid in 2024 Fantasy Basketball
On the flip side, Fantasy managers should be cautious of Lauri Markkanen of the Utah Jazz. After a breakout season in 2022-23, where he earned an All-Star selection and was named Most Improved Player, Markkanen’s performance regressed in 2023-24. His shooting percentage, points per game, and rebounds all saw declines, compounded by injuries that sidelined him for a significant portion of the season.
Despite signing a five-year extension with the Jazz, Markkanen’s future remains uncertain, especially with the team investing in other forwards through the draft. His current ADP positions him as one of the top small forwards, but the model suggests he may not live up to that expectation, ranking him outside the top eight at his position.
Finding Proven Rankings for 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball
For those looking to navigate the complexities of the upcoming Fantasy basketball season, SportsLine offers comprehensive rankings and cheat sheets. The model has already made bold predictions about several high-profile players, advising against drafting them at their current ADP. This includes notable names like Damian Lillard and James Harden, who may not meet the expectations set by their draft positions.
As Fantasy managers prepare for the 2024-25 season, understanding which players to target and which to avoid is crucial. SportsLine’s insights can provide the edge needed to build a championship-caliber roster, ensuring that owners are well-equipped to make informed decisions throughout the draft and the season.