NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 4: Underdogs on the Rise
As we dive into Week 4 of the 2024-25 NFL season, the betting landscape has been anything but predictable. If you’ve been riding the wave of underdog bets, particularly on heavy underdogs, your bankroll is likely looking quite healthy. With NFL favorites managing a mere 29-20 straight-up record so far this season, the question looms: will the trend of underdog victories continue in Week 4?
Matt McEwan, alongside his SBD formula, has been analyzing the matchups and is ready to share his moneyline picks for the week. After a mixed bag in Week 3—where McEwan went 1-1 and his formula finished 2-3—there’s optimism for this week’s selections. The formula remains in the green for the season, boasting a +4.10 unit profit. Let’s break down the key picks for this week.
Week 4 NFL Moneyline Picks
Expert NFL Moneyline Picks
- Vikings over Packers (+126 at FanDuel)
- Bills over Ravens (+116 at FanDuel)
Computer NFL Moneyline Picks
- Vikings over Packers (+126 at FanDuel)
- Saints over Falcons (+130 at bet365)
- Chargers over Chiefs (+300 at ESPN Bet)
- Bills over Ravens (+116 at FanDuel)
- Seahawks over Lions (+165 at bet365)
For the first time this season, McEwan’s picks align perfectly with his formula’s selections. This synchronicity suggests a strong consensus on the potential for upsets this week.
Vikings Over Packers
The Minnesota Vikings are riding a wave of momentum, and McEwan believes they are one of the best-performing teams in the league right now. The Vikings have shown resilience and skill, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They lead the league in sacks and are tied for third in takeaways, showcasing their ability to disrupt opposing offenses.
The matchup against the Green Bay Packers presents an intriguing dynamic. While many are waiting for Sam Darnold to find his footing, McEwan suggests that the Vikings’ defense will pose significant challenges for whoever starts at quarterback for the Packers—be it Jordan Love or Malik Willis. The Vikings have held formidable offenses like the 49ers and Texans to a combined 24 points, indicating their defensive prowess.
On the flip side, McEwan expresses skepticism about the Packers’ defense, which has struggled against competent quarterbacks. With the Vikings’ offensive capabilities and a defense that can capitalize on mistakes, this pick seems to have solid grounding.
Pick: Vikings moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)
Bills Over Ravens
This pick is less about the Bills being a powerhouse and more about the Ravens’ inconsistencies. McEwan acknowledges that trusting the Ravens has been a gamble, especially after their recent performances. However, he has faith in the Bills to rise to the occasion on Sunday Night Football.
Josh Allen, in McEwan’s view, is one of the top quarterbacks in the league. His ability to play efficiently without forcing passes has been a key factor in the Bills’ success. With a completion rate of 75% and a high net yardage per pass attempt, Allen is poised to exploit the Ravens’ defensive weaknesses.
The Ravens have excelled at stopping the run, but their pass defense has been suspect, ranking 27th in net yards allowed per attempt. McEwan believes that Allen will be able to spread the ball effectively among his receiving options, making it difficult for the Ravens to contain the Bills’ offense.
Pick: Bills moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)
Additional Picks from the Computer Formula
The computer picks also highlight the Saints over the Falcons, the Chargers over the Chiefs, and the Seahawks over the Lions. Each of these matchups presents unique opportunities for underdog victories, and the odds reflect the potential for significant returns.
Final Thoughts
As Week 4 approaches, the betting landscape is ripe with opportunities for savvy bettors. With underdogs continuing to make waves, McEwan’s insights and the computer’s analysis provide a compelling case for taking calculated risks. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the NFL betting waters, these picks could offer a pathway to success this week. Be sure to check the latest odds and consider the context of each matchup before placing your bets.