As we dive into Week 8 of the 2024-25 NFL season, excitement is palpable across the league. With no teams on bye this week, we have a full slate of 15 games to analyze and bet on. If you’re looking for guidance on how to navigate the betting landscape for these matchups, you’re in the right place. My SBD formula and I have been crunching the numbers and analyzing trends to bring you our top picks for the week.
In this article, I’ll share my NFL picks, focusing on underdogs that not only have the potential to cover their spreads but also to win outright. These picks are based on moneyline bets with enticing plus-odds. Last week, I successfully called one upset, netting 1.08 units, while my SBD formula went 2-1, yielding a profit of 1.18 units. Together, following both strategies would have resulted in a total profit of 2.26 units. However, if you waited until closer to kickoff for the Jets pick, you could have still walked away with a respectable 1.43 units. Let’s see what Week 8 has in store!
Week 8 NFL Picks
Expert NFL Moneyline Picks
- Cardinals over Dolphins (+178 at Caesars)
- Buccaneers over Falcons (+125 at bet365)
- Eagles over Bengals (+130 at ESPN Bet)
- Commanders over Bears (+140 at BetMGM)
Computer NFL Moneyline Picks
- Cardinals over Dolphins (+178 at Caesars)
- Buccaneers over Falcons (+125 at bet365)
- Eagles over Bengals (+130 at ESPN Bet)
- Commanders over Bears (+140 at BetMGM)
This week, I’m focusing on one primary upset pick, which aligns with my SBD formula’s predictions. The formula has identified three additional upsets, bringing its total to four for the week. It’s worth noting that the favorites are expected to win in the remaining 12 games, with margins of victory generally exceeding six points. However, the four upsets predicted are all within a narrow margin of 3.8 points or less, indicating a competitive week ahead.
Before placing your bets, make sure to check our NFL odds page for the best prices, as the odds mentioned here reflect the best available at the time of writing. Now, let’s delve deeper into my analysis of the Cardinals’ matchup against the Dolphins.
Cardinals over Dolphins
This pick is less about the Cardinals’ resurgence and more about the Dolphins’ struggles, particularly with Tua Tagovailoa returning from a lengthy absence. Arizona surprised many with their victory over the Chargers last week, but I don’t expect them to suddenly transform into a powerhouse. Instead, I believe their average performance will be sufficient to secure a win against Miami.
My skepticism regarding the Dolphins stems from two key factors. First, Tua has been sidelined for nearly six weeks, and I doubt he’ll be able to shake off the rust and find his rhythm immediately upon his return. The chemistry and timing that are crucial in Mike McDaniel’s offense may take time to re-establish, especially after such a long layoff.
Secondly, the Dolphins’ early-season performance raises red flags. They narrowly defeated a struggling Jaguars team in Week 1 and were trailing significantly against the Bills before Tua’s injury in Week 2. If we consider those games indicative of their offensive capabilities, it’s hard to believe they’ll suddenly click into gear in Tua’s first game back.
Moreover, while the Dolphins’ defense has impressive statistics, those numbers are misleading. They’ve faced a series of underwhelming offenses, and I don’t believe they’ll pose much of a challenge to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. I expect Murray to exploit any weaknesses and lead Arizona to a victory.
Pick: Cardinals moneyline (+178 at Caesars)
As we gear up for the rest of Week 8, keep an eye on the matchups and consider these insights as you make your betting decisions. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting, understanding the dynamics of each game can significantly enhance your chances of success. For more detailed analysis and additional picks, stay tuned as we continue to break down the NFL season.