The Simplicity of NFL Moneyline Betting
When it comes to betting on the NFL, the moneyline is often the simplest and most straightforward option available. Unlike point spreads or over/under bets, the moneyline requires you to do just one thing: pick which team will win the game outright. This simplicity makes it an attractive choice for both novice and seasoned bettors alike. As the 2024-25 NFL season unfolds, underdogs have been making headlines, and savvy bettors are capitalizing on this trend.
The Underdog Phenomenon in 2024
So far this season, favorites have only managed to win 38 out of 65 games straight up, including Thursday Night Football in Week 5. This trend indicates that betting on the right underdogs could significantly boost your bankroll. If you’ve been following the underdog narrative, you might have already noticed how these teams have been outperforming expectations.
In Week 4, I went 1-1 on my upset picks, resulting in a modest gain of 0.26 units. Overall, I’ve managed to turn a profit in three of the first four weeks. However, my score-predicting formula had a rough outing last week, going 1-4 and losing 2.74 units. Despite this setback, it remains slightly in the green for the year, up 0.36 units.
Week 5 NFL Moneyline Picks
As we dive into Week 5, the list of potential upsets is shorter than in previous weeks, but I’m feeling optimistic about the moneyline picks I’ve identified. Below are the underdogs I believe have a solid chance of winning outright:
Expert NFL Moneyline Picks
- Colts over Jaguars (+143 at Caesars)
- Bills over Texans (+100 at ESPN Bet)
- Saints over Chiefs (+215 at FanDuel)
Interestingly, I’m only placing a bet on one underdog this week, while my SBD formula has identified three potential upsets. This week’s picks reflect a blend of expert intuition and algorithmic analysis, providing a well-rounded approach to betting.
A Closer Look at the Colts vs. Jaguars
Let’s delve deeper into my lone NFL upset pick for Week 5: the Colts over the Jaguars. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Colts, I believe they have the tools to secure a victory. While the absence of Jonathan Taylor is a concern, it’s a situation we anticipated heading into this week. The Colts are currently receiving a full three points, which adds to the intrigue.
If Anthony Richardson manages to play, I expect Indianapolis to rely heavily on their ground game, potentially leading to a nail-biter against the Jaguars. On the other hand, if Joe Flacco is under center, I foresee him exploiting Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked pass defense, possibly leading to a comfortable win by two scores.
The Jaguars have been struggling to find their rhythm this season. Despite ranking second in the NFL with an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, they have run the ball the fifth-fewest times. Their third-down conversion rate is dismal at 25%, and their defense allows opponents to convert 42.6% of third downs, ranking 24th in the league.
While I believe Jacksonville will improve as the season progresses, I can’t ignore the opportunity to back the Colts at plus-money against a team that seems to be floundering. This pick is more about fading the Jaguars than it is about fully endorsing the Colts.
Final Thoughts on Betting Strategy
If you’re looking for moneyline picks for all 13 games this Sunday and Monday, I’ve technically provided them! My SBD formula predicts favorites winning in every matchup except for the three listed above. However, I would advise caution when considering certain favorites, particularly the Texans and Bears. The Bills’ inconsistency also raises red flags for me this week.
For those interested in maximizing their betting potential, I recommend checking out the latest odds to ensure you’re getting the best price possible. The NFL odds page on Sports Betting Dime does the line shopping for you, making it easier to find the best deals.
While I won’t divulge the specifics of my formula, I’m excited to share my insights and analysis as we navigate through this unpredictable NFL season. With underdogs continuing to surprise, there’s ample opportunity to make informed bets that could pay off handsomely.