The Road to the College Football Playoff: Midseason Projections
As the excitement of the 2024 college football season builds, fans and analysts alike are eagerly anticipating the first official College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, set to be released on November 5. This season marks a significant change in the playoff format, expanding to 12 teams, which adds a new layer of intrigue to the postseason landscape. With the absence of CFP rankings at this point, we’ll lean heavily on the AP Top 25 to project the playoff field. Historically, the CFP rankings and the AP poll align closely as the season progresses, making this exercise both relevant and engaging.
First-Round Byes: The Top Four Teams
1. Texas (6-0, Projected SEC Champion)
The Texas Longhorns have maintained their grip on the No. 1 spot following a commanding 34-3 victory over their arch-rival Oklahoma. After a slow start, Texas rallied to score the final 34 points of the game, showcasing their resilience and depth. Quarterback Quinn Ewers will need to shake off any rust as they prepare for a critical matchup against Georgia in Week 8, a game that could serve as a preview for the SEC championship. The Longhorns are looking to solidify their status as a powerhouse in the newly competitive SEC landscape.
2. Oregon (6-0, Projected Big Ten Champion)
Oregon has made a significant leap into the top four after a thrilling 32-31 victory over Ohio State. The Ducks’ defense stepped up in crucial moments, aided by a clever penalty that allowed them to maintain their lead. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who transferred to Oregon, has emerged as a Heisman contender, showcasing his dual-threat capabilities with both passing and rushing touchdowns. As the Ducks continue to build momentum, they are positioning themselves as a formidable contender in the playoff race.
3. Miami (6-0, Projected ACC Champion)
The Miami Hurricanes enjoyed a bye week in Week 7, allowing them to regroup and prepare for a challenging road game against Louisville. The Cardinals have proven to be a tough opponent at home, and Miami will need to bring their A-game to maintain their perfect record. With a strong showing in the ACC, the Hurricanes are looking to solidify their playoff aspirations as they navigate the second half of the season.
4. Iowa State (6-0, Projected Big 12 Champion)
Iowa State has quietly established itself as a contender, recently defeating West Virginia 28-16. The Cyclones demonstrated their ability to control the game, leading comfortably in the fourth quarter. With Carson Hansen’s impressive rushing performance and Rocco Becht’s efficient passing, Iowa State is proving to be a well-rounded team capable of competing at the highest level. Their continued success in the Big 12 will be crucial as they aim for a playoff berth.
First-Round Games: Matchups to Watch
No. 12 Boise State (5-1, Projected MWC Champion) vs. No. 5 Penn State (6-0, At-Large)
This matchup promises to be a thrilling clash of running games. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, averaging an impressive 9.9 yards per carry, is a standout player and a midseason Heisman favorite. On the other side, Penn State’s dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen has also been effective, each surpassing 400 rushing yards this season. The Nittany Lions are coming off an exhilarating overtime victory against USC, where tight end Tyler Warren played a pivotal role. This game could showcase contrasting styles and highlight the strengths of both teams.
No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, At-Large) vs. No. 6 Ohio State (5-1, At-Large)
This matchup serves as an intriguing deviation from the current AP rankings, illustrating the potential decisions the committee may face later in the season. Tennessee is set to face Georgia and Alabama in the coming weeks, which could significantly impact their playoff positioning. A road trip to Columbus would be a challenging test for the Volunteers, but it could also provide an opportunity to solidify their standing in the playoff race.
No. 10 LSU (5-1, At-Large) vs. No. 7 Georgia (5-1, At-Large)
The LSU Tigers, led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, are making waves in the SEC after a dramatic overtime win against Ole Miss. Nussmeier’s impressive stats place him among the top passers in the country, and he will need to continue his strong play against a formidable Georgia team. The Bulldogs, while still a powerhouse, have seen some inconsistency in their passing game this season. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they vie for playoff positioning.
No. 9 Clemson (5-1, At-Large) vs. No. 8 Alabama (5-1, At-Large)
A potential rematch of the storied Clemson-Alabama rivalry in the first round of the expanded playoff would be a fitting narrative. Clemson’s offense has rebounded impressively after a rocky start, scoring at least 40 points in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe remains a key player for the Crimson Tide, but he must improve his decision-making to avoid costly turnovers. This matchup would not only reignite a classic rivalry but also serve as a critical test for both programs as they aim for playoff glory.
As the season progresses, the landscape of college football continues to evolve, and the anticipation for the first official CFP rankings grows. With the expanded playoff format, every game counts more than ever, and the excitement surrounding potential matchups is palpable. Fans are in for a thrilling ride as teams battle for their place in college football history.