The Rollercoaster of College Football: A Quarter-Season Review
As we reach the quarter mark of the college football season, the landscape is anything but stable. With unexpected twists and turns, the race for the College Football Playoff (CFP) has already seen significant shake-ups. Out of the 12 teams projected to make the playoff in the preseason, three have already fallen out of contention, and several others that were once on the bubble have also slipped away. The drama is palpable, and the stakes are higher than ever.
Shifting Projections: The Rise and Fall of Teams
In my previous stock report after Week 2, I highlighted teams like Miami, Tennessee, and USC as rising stars. Fast forward to now, and Miami has solidified its position as the projected No. 3 seed in the CFP, boasting a 72 percent chance of making the playoff and a 40 percent chance of winning the ACC. Tennessee, fresh off a significant road victory against Oklahoma, is now slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance of making the field. Meanwhile, despite a tough road loss to Michigan, USC clings to the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance of playoff contention.
Conversely, teams that were trending down in my last report—Oregon, Notre Dame, and Michigan—have had their own rollercoaster experiences. Oregon remains in the projected playoff field as the No. 6 seed, with its playoff odds rising to 87 percent, despite a lack of improvement in overall team ratings. Notre Dame has seen a slight uptick in its playoff odds to 37 percent, but the Irish are still reeling from a shocking home defeat to Northern Illinois. As for Michigan, while they recently secured a crucial win against USC, doubts linger about their long-term viability in the playoff race.
Stock Up: Teams on the Rise
Penn State
The Nittany Lions have seen their playoff odds increase by 8 percentage points over the past two weeks, now sitting at 80 percent—the sixth highest in the nation. Their overall team strength has also improved, particularly on offense, where they rank seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play. The defense, while facing some challenges, remains a top-20 unit. With a favorable schedule ahead, including a projected win in all but one game, Penn State is poised for a strong finish. My model predicts a 72 percent chance of the Nittany Lions winning 10 or more games, which would likely secure them a playoff berth.
Boise State
Despite an early loss to Oregon, Boise State’s playoff odds have surged by 13 percentage points to 36 percent. The Broncos have a solid chance to bolster their resume with a win against Washington State this week. A standout player for Boise State is running back Ashton Jeanty, who leads the nation in EPA per rush and is a potential first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. His explosive playmaking ability is a significant asset for the Broncos as they navigate the rest of the season.
Stock Down: Teams Facing Challenges
Michigan
While Michigan recently celebrated a victory over USC, their performance raised more questions than answers. The Wolverines managed just 32 passing yards, relying heavily on their run game and a defensive touchdown. This formula may not hold up against stronger opponents. With a challenging schedule ahead, including games against Oregon and Ohio State, Michigan’s playoff odds remain slim. My model gives them only a 5 percent chance of making the playoff, reflecting ongoing concerns about their offensive capabilities.
LSU
LSU’s struggles have been evident, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Ranking 83rd in EPA per play and facing a tough schedule, the Tigers have seen their playoff odds plummet from 24 percent to just 12 percent. While the offense has potential, particularly with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier at the helm, the defense’s inability to improve raises significant doubts about their playoff viability. The loss of star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to injury only compounds these issues.
The Road Ahead
As the season progresses, the dynamics of college football continue to evolve. Teams like Penn State and Boise State are making strong cases for playoff contention, while others like Michigan and LSU are grappling with critical challenges. With each passing week, the drama intensifies, and the quest for the College Football Playoff remains a captivating narrative filled with surprises and uncertainties. As fans, we can only sit back and enjoy the ride.