Another Week of Profits in College Football Betting
As the leaves begin to change and the excitement of college football season reaches a fever pitch, it’s time to reflect on the past week’s betting endeavors. While I’m pleased to report a modest profit, it could have been even sweeter had I not decided to bet the under on a game featuring the electrifying Ashton Jeanty. If you haven’t had the pleasure of watching Jeanty play, you’re missing out on one of the most dynamic talents in college football. Currently the Heisman favorite, Jeanty has a knack for turning games into scoring bonanzas, making him a formidable opponent for anyone betting on unders.
The Week in Review
Despite the ups and downs of betting, a winning week is still a winning week. Last week, I managed a record of 4-3, netting a profit of +0.70 units. This brings my season record to 22-25-2, with a slight deficit of -3.64 units and a -6.8% ROI. While the numbers may not be dazzling, they reflect the grind of the betting process. The key is to stay the course; if we keep chipping away at profits, we’ll find ourselves in the black by the end of the year—albeit just barely.
Looking Ahead: Week 7 Betting Card
This week’s betting card features six plays, two of which may be affected by hurricane conditions earlier in the week. However, forecasts suggest that by the weekend, the weather should clear up, allowing for a fair playing field. Among these plays, we have a stake in one of the marquee matchups of the week, which promises to be a thrilling contest.
As always, it’s crucial to shop around for the best prices. A few cents here and there can make a significant difference in the long run. So, let’s dive into this week’s best bets!
South Florida +7 (-110) vs. Memphis
This matchup piques my interest primarily due to South Florida’s run defense going up against Memphis’s rushing attack. South Florida has held its own against a tough schedule, and I believe they can keep Memphis from establishing a strong ground game. If Memphis struggles to run the ball, laying a touchdown on the road could prove challenging. It’s worth noting that I wouldn’t recommend betting this at +6.5.
Worst price to bet: South Florida +7 (-115)
Miami Ohio -3 (-110) at Eastern Michigan
This bet is largely a fade of Eastern Michigan, who recently struggled against Kent State, winning by only 19 points while allowing 33 points to a third-string quarterback. There are some +2.5 lines available with a bit of juice, which I’d consider if you can find them at -115 or better. However, I’m comfortable with -3 at this point.
Worst price to bet: Miami Ohio -3 (-110)
UCF -3 (-110) vs. Cincinnati
I see this as a buy-low opportunity for UCF. After two disappointing performances against Colorado and Florida, they return home, where they should find success on the ground against Cincinnati. BetMGM is offering the best price on this line, and I believe this is a solid spot for the Golden Knights to bounce back.
Worst price to bet: UCF -3 (-110)
West Virginia +3 (-105) vs. Iowa State
Despite my model being lower on West Virginia throughout the season, I see value in this matchup against Iowa State. Iowa State tends to favor a run-heavy approach, while West Virginia has shown vulnerabilities against the pass. I’m skeptical about Iowa State’s ability to win a close game on the road, especially given West Virginia’s offensive capabilities against teams not named Penn State.
Worst price to bet: West Virginia +3 (-115)
Arizona +4 (-110) at BYU
I’m taking a stance against BYU here. While they’re currently ranked in the top 15, my model places them in the 40s. Their undefeated record is impressive, but I believe they’re being overvalued by the market. As a defensive team, I wouldn’t feel comfortable laying more than a field goal against comparable competition. My model suggests this game is much closer to a coin flip.
Worst price to bet: Arizona +3.5 (-110)
Oregon +3.5 (-110) vs. Ohio State
This is undoubtedly one of the biggest matchups of the weekend, and I’m excited to have a bet on it. Oregon is getting too many points in this contest. While Ohio State is a powerhouse, I have concerns about their offense on the road. They should be favored, but I don’t believe it should be by more than a field goal.
Worst price to bet: Oregon +3.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts
As we gear up for another thrilling week of college football, remember to keep your eyes peeled for the best lines and opportunities. Betting can be a rollercoaster, but with a disciplined approach and a keen eye for value, we can navigate the ups and downs together. Good luck to us all!