Boise State vs. Hawaii: A Saturday Night Showdown in College Football
As the sun sets over the picturesque island of Oahu, college football fans will turn their eyes to the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex for a late-night clash between the No. 17 Boise State Broncos and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Scheduled for October 12, 2024, at 11 p.m. ET, this matchup promises to be a thrilling encounter, especially with Boise State entering as a heavy favorite.
Game Overview and Odds
Boise State (4-1, 1-0 Mountain West) has been a force to reckon with this season, boasting an impressive average margin of victory of nearly 27 points in their four wins. Their only loss came in a narrow 3-point defeat against Oregon, showcasing their competitive edge. On the other hand, Hawaii (2-3, 0-1) has struggled to find consistency, with their victories coming against FCS opponents and three losses in their last four games.
The odds reflect the disparity in performance, with Boise State opening as a 20.5-point favorite. The over/under is set at 59.5 points, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair, largely due to Boise’s explosive offense, which has been averaging over 50 points per game. The moneyline odds further emphasize Boise’s dominance, with the Broncos at -1600 (implying a 94.1% chance of victory) and Hawaii at +900 (just a 10% chance).
Boise State Betting Analysis
At the heart of Boise State’s success this season is running back Ashton Jeanty, who has taken the college football world by storm. Leading the nation in rushing yards (1,031), rushing touchdowns (16), and yards per carry (10.8), Jeanty has been a game-changer. His remarkable performance has drawn comparisons to legends like Barry Sanders, and his prop bets reflect his dominance, with an over/under of 188.5 rushing yards and an anytime touchdown prop at -3500.
Behind Jeanty, quarterback Maddux Madsen has managed the offense effectively, though he has not been called upon to carry the team. His stats (85 completions on 135 attempts for 1,056 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions) are solid, but his struggles against tougher defenses raise questions about his ability to perform under pressure.
Defensively, Boise State has shown vulnerabilities, ranking 114th in EPA/play allowed and last in explosiveness allowed. Their recent performance against Utah State, where they surrendered 371 passing yards, highlights the need for improvement. If Jeanty has an off day, the Broncos’ defense will need to step up to secure the win.
Hawaii Betting Analysis
Despite their 2-3 record, Hawaii has shown flashes of competitiveness, particularly on defense. The Rainbow Warriors rank 12th in Success Rate and 10th in EPA/play allowed, with a front seven that has been particularly effective. Their ability to limit opposing offenses will be crucial against a high-powered Boise State attack.
Offensively, Hawaii relies heavily on the passing game under head coach Timmy Chang. Quarterback Brayden Schager has put up respectable numbers (124 completions on 205 attempts for 1,328 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions), but his performance has been hampered by a high number of dropped passes—18, the most in the nation. However, Schager has excelled on intermediate throws, and against Boise’s struggling secondary, he may find opportunities for big plays.
Hawaii’s improvement in finishing drives is noteworthy, ranking 40th in that category. This is a stark contrast to Boise’s defense, which ranks 82nd in finishing drives allowed. If the Rainbow Warriors can capitalize on their chances, they could keep the game competitive.
Prediction and Best Bets
In this matchup, I lean towards Hawaii covering the spread at +21. While Boise State is likely to secure the victory, the potential for a look-ahead spot with UNLV on the horizon could lead to a less-than-fully focused performance from the Broncos. Hawaii’s strong run defense could force Madsen to make plays, and if Schager can exploit Boise’s secondary, the Rainbow Warriors may keep the score closer than expected.
Expect a final score around 45-27 in favor of Boise State, but with Hawaii’s recent trend of covering the spread (7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games), taking the points is a smart move. Additionally, the over is appealing if you believe Hawaii can reach their team total of 20.5 points.
Saturday CFB Pick:
Hawaii +21 (-110)
With the stage set for an exciting night of college football, fans can anticipate a thrilling matchup filled with explosive plays and strategic battles. Whether you’re rooting for the Broncos or the Rainbow Warriors, this game promises to deliver entertainment and excitement under the Hawaiian lights.